GROUP B - "The Big Battering”
Overview: Both of 2010’s finalists,
one of the most capable underdogs have to play each other and significantly less
talented cartilage crunchers Australia.
The unexpected is likely here, as this is a group where every minute of every
game will count towards the outcome. While everyone is anticipating tonight’s
Spain Holland, it might well end up being a messy affair with both teams not
currently at their best.
In fact, if Chile would manage to top this group it would not be a surprise, as
Spain look tired and worn out, and Holland have mostly a very new, very young
squad, with Dutch supporters heavily concerned about an inexperienced and
suspect defence.
With a lot of half-injured and half-out-of-form stars Spain could struggle, but
so could Holland with a smidgen too many youths, however talented and capable,
in the team. Chile have excellent potential, but some weaknesses including
their very unorthodox and short defence. Australia are filled with unknowns,
with their most recognized player, Cahill, playing out of his traditional
position as a lone striker.
Those
Australians love to give a tender bone massage to their speedier opponents, and
the fact that their group is filled with fragile and technical precious crystal,
we could see some heavy bruising.
The Big Questions:
Can Chile
oust one of the two more established teams to progress?
Can Australia
pull off a miracle and come away with both a point or two and the stealing of the
World Cup hosting honours which have already been sold to Qatar?
Teams: (click on team for links to my or other
previews)
Strengths: Experience, a tested
system that still works and is still hard to beat, the leaders now were the
supporting players four years ago, tacky-tucka, that fan Manolo who has
been there longer than any of the players and often works harder during
matches, raw class in a lot of departments. The team is very well gelled.
Possession
play to its empirical definition. It still manages to control even the best
opponents.
Weakness: Psychological and
physical fatigue we talk of physical injuries but the Barcelona players for
example have had the life sucked out of them this year, age and no
replacement for people like Pujol, Diego Costa is likely overrated, weaker
attacking line than in the past.
I especially argued the last two World Cups that it was finally the addition of
good attackers that gave Spain the World Cup, but this lineup is burned out and
too old, del Bosque puts too much trust in them. Spain have started showing
serious cracks, and even if the floodgates don’t open this month they might
soon.
Likely formation: 4231 – tried and tested, but
keeping big names on the bench
Coach: 9.9
Vicente del Bosque
You cannot give a lower rating, and you cannot just
stop trusting a coach that has already won everything… well he will go up to 10.0
If he manages even a bronze with exhausted Spain this time.
GK: 9.0 – in Casillas we trust(ed)
DEF: 9.1
MID: 9.8
ATT: 8.0
The star: David Silva is where all the Spanish
hopes lie now, Iniesta and Xavi have already done their part, but it’s David Silva
who was a keynote for Manchester City this season and is now the main actor for
Spain.
Crafty, goal
scoring, on top of the world game at the moment, tired
The defender: The two headed monster
called Piqueramos, hat impregnated Shakira at the exact same time as
getting Spanish defender of the year with Real Madrid. This beast keeps tight
shop in the Spanish defensive zone, and manages to extend its skilful tentacles
all over the pitch.
Experienced
champions, skilled and tactically-wise, play well together, could prove
fatigued
The midfielder: Xavi and Iniesta have been conquering the
world for years together, and they still have what it takes. Will their
conquistador act be successful in Brazil? Very possibly yes, but will it be
enough?
Tired, masterful
The attacker: Diego Costa the naturalized
Brazillian is very highly praised, and his imminent move to Chelsea from
Atletico Madid is grabbing headlines. He is not however the reason for Atleti’s
great season, and in my opinion too much praise is coming on him too soon.
Tall and has
some skill, fighting and determined, overrated (but with Spain behind him that
might prove insignificant)
The captain: Iker Casillas was
mistreated by Real Madrid in recent years, and the powerful team even used
their media influence to tarnish his reputation. His fantastic personal
influence on any team, and his ability to take failure on the chin make him a
great successor for the Spanish captaincy. At 33 this is set to be his swan
song.
Shot stopper,
leader, determined
The prospect:
Koke – the real engine that brought success to Atletico
Madrid this season, he won’t get much time with Spain, but can be relied upon
to bring great energy and play when he does.
Hard working, decisive, dynamo
César Azpilicueta – the only other “young”
player in the Spain squad he had a great season with Chelsea after a great
season with Marseille, and although he is only 24 he has been among my
favourites for years.
Technical, hardworking, assists frequently, physically weak at times, needs
more experience.
Strengths: Several historic players
that have missed their chance a number of times already, underrated
young, hungry players, a good, functional footballing pedigree that
needs to finally achieve something, a strong bench.
Weaknesses: The spectre of massive
failures in the past, especially at the last Euros lurking, an
unconfident, inexperienced defence (although I don’t believe they are as bad as
some say), the team still is gelling, a mediocre string of goalkeepers
comparing to past greats.
Some players
had very bad seasons with clubs.
I agree with van Gaal that the absence of underrated Kevin Strootman is a major
absence for Holland, as for his midfield intelligence there is no replacement,
yet. Van der vaart will be less missed.
Likely formation: 433 has been van Gaal’s
preferred, 4231 the crowd’s, he has deployed 3-5-2’s but rumour has it he
will switch against Spain to 532 tonight.
Coach: 9.1
Louis van Gaal
… is a
talker, and since much of it is in Dutch the world doesn’t understand all of
it. He is a tough coach, with touch, idealistic training methods that saw him
fail at Bayern Munich for instance. His peak was perhaps in the 1990s but I
still believe in van Gaal as one of the great football minds of our generation.
He has won a
lot as a manager, but much of it long ago, and after this, his second spell
with Holland he is heading to Manchester United in an attempt to recreate that
team following the legacy of Alex Ferguson.
His idealism
and tactical genius makes him expect too much of some players, and this could
be a dangerous combination with a young Holland, even though much of these
players have been trained from an early age in systems he authored.
GK: 7.8 – all to prove
DEF: 7.8
MID: 8.2 – last-chancers
and kids
ATT: 9.1 let’s not kid ourselves
by being too negative
The star: Arjen Robben won’t be around and at
top speed for much longer, and he has often been the one performer for
underperforming Holland at major tournaments. This could be his last major
hurrah and he knows it, his wing-play will define things, and some goals would
help.
Classic
player, goal scorer but inconsistent, shoots too much, can be selfish, highly
dangerous and a game changer. Just when you think you know Robben he surprises
you.
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The defender: Ron Vlaar is the one true
experienced central defender in Holland, and having slaved away at Aston Villa
he is accustomed to getting a lot of work back there.
Strong,
decisive, consistent for club, this could be a chance to expand on his growing
but still small reputation.
The midfielder: Wesley Sneijder has rediscovered form and
joy at Galatasary it seems, can this emblematic midfielder repeat his great
World Cup last time out?
Pressured,
brilliant, free kick and pass genius, classic player, dropped his level and
fitness in recent years.
The attacker: although I could mention
Huntelaar or Kuyt I want to focus on powerful forward Jermaine Lens who
has scored so many goals, and many off the bench for van Gaal’s Dutch team.
Strong,
penetrating, masters the channels and beats offside. Could develop into a
complete forward if he had a bit more team and creative play.
The captain: Robin van Persie is
coming out of a poor club season, and he has a last chance to prove that he has
the personality to live up to his massive well-earned mercenary reputation for
his country as well.
Technical,
surprising, world class even if many don’t like him, fragile and injury-prone,
playing with pain, perhaps lacking motivation.
Strange
choice for Captain looking from the outside, but since his quality speaks for
itself and Holland’s performances rely on him maybe this is understandable.
The prospects:
Jordy Clasie – is one of the big
prospects of this World Cup at 22, because van Gaal is doing wonders with him
for the national team. His passing is phenomenal and he is very dangerous with
the ball. Where he cannot fill Strootman’s shoes is off-the-ball.
Superb
passer, creative, small and weak, determined
Memphis Depay – a tricky dribbler with
terrible finishing, but fun to watch like so many Dutch youngsters before him
this might be his break.
Tricky,
craft, can play on either wing, couldn’t shoot a ball into the ocean.
Bruno Martins Indi – Feyenoord has trained
some good defenders in the past, and after a gap in time Indi might be the next
generation of that quality.
Strong, fast, inexperienced, mistake prone, could get lost against major
opponents.
Strengths: Several world class
players, some more fantastic underrated players, speed, flair, many pages in
their trick book, a desire to live up to their inherent quality, underdog
status, versatile players
In Chile
players really each master three or four positions traditionally, no less so
for the national team, this helps with tournaments should they do the
impossible and progress
Weaknesses: suspect defence,
imperfect attack, the 2010 team was better, injuries and fatigue for key
players, lack of tall and physically strong players, some big talents were left
at home in favour or tamer more experienced players
A lot of
experimentation by Sampaoli is likely a bad thing but could prove sheer genius,
as those things happen you know.
Likely formation: 4-3-3 that turns in
3-4-3, imagine a
lot of dynamism and a lot of versatile players and you get something really
interesting tactically. Chile play the classical Ajax or Barcelona formation
that Dutch van Gaal was one of the fathers of.
Everyone talks about different aspects of Chile, but the most interesting thing
is that the defence could consist of two short, fast, converted defensive midfielders
at any point in the group. They are good players, and good defensively, but it
must be nerve-racking to be a Chile fan watching.
Coach: 8.2
Jorge Sampaoli (Arg of Italian origin)
The jury is
still out, but he seems to have bags of tactical knowledge, I want to rate him
lower because I am undecided even though I watched many of Chile’s games, but I
think he might be a really good coach about to reveal himself.
GK: 7.8
DEF: 7.8 – a lot of central defenders out
MID: 9.5
ATT: 9.5 on the wings, 7.5 in the middle
The star: Arturo Vidal has been superb for Juventus
these past seasons, but injury could rule him out of the first game against
Australia (a great place to pick up another) and maybe even beyond.
Decisive,
everywhere on the pitch, contributes with goals, superb passer, tempo-setter
and ball-winner. Yellow-card prone.
The defender: Gary Medel is a converted defensive
midfield, who I value tremendously for his tackling and industrial hard work.
He has in the past been prone to tempermental play, cards and sendings off.
Superb
tackler, fast, aptly nicknamed “pitbull,” tireless, ball winner and
counterattack starter, can’t score, and referees often hate him. A frustrating season with Cardiff City.
The midfielder: under Sampaoli “el Mago”
or “the Magician” Jorge Valdívia has found his form with the side again.
He has a big reputation in Brazillian league football for being very creative
and decisive despite his lack of physical positives.
Superb
passer, tempo setter, makes decisive assists, slow and weak, sometimes
inefficient and wasteful under pressure.
Capable of stunning play.
The attacker: it has to be Alexis Sánchez, who for me was
the only high point of Barcelona’s season, yet he cannot be appreciated despite
21 goals and 15 assists this season. This has to be his World Cup, and with him
in form down the left or right Chile can achieve very much indeed.
A lightning-fast man-muscle, decisive, goal scorer,
technically savvy, underrated although highly-rated, unmarkable, determined,
tired
The captain: In Claudio
Bravo Sampaoli trusts. Sure, he has been great for overachievers Real
Sociedad over the past two seasons, but just in case his replacements are good.
He is determined and a big game player, who can stop one-on-ones well in case
the improvised defence screws up.
Brave, determined,
commanding, in good form.
The prospects:
Felipe Gutiérrez is a skilled winger and
attacking midfield who is still largely unknown, but could be on his way to a
bigger club or league soon.
Eduardo Vargas failed to get the time
to prove himself at Napoli, but became a major fixture at Valencia on loan this
season. He is only 24, but with a huge South American reputation at decisive
goals and fantastic play and goals in important games he could prove a key
secret weapon for Chile.
AUSTRALIA
– "the Socceroos"
(More honestly the “brain bouncers” would work than
any allusion to fuzziness and kangaroos)
Strengths: Freshness like the smell
of burning sheep meat, no pressure (except for false Australian expectations),
almost no stars remaining, speed and strength, determination in bags
Weaknesses: Lack of quality, lack
of experience, lack of stamina from not playing in top leagues, the two star
players Bresciano and Cahill are very old and tired, mistake-prone
Likely formation: Surprisingly, the coach
is insane and likes to try attacking and possession football and plays a 4-3-3
or 4-2-3-1 for the World Cup, at least they could go out with a better reputation that their last boring
defensive performances.
Coach: 5.5
Ange Postecoglu (AUS of Greek origin)
I am not
giving him a low rating because his rhetorhic doesn’t impress me, or his intent
on having Australia try attacking football is not respectable. He seems falsely
overconfident sadly, and if he starts to achieve his experiment it will be a
miracle and I will throw in my full support. At the moment thought, it seems
rightfully insane to abandon great or once-great or good players with
international experience like Schwarzer, Joshua Kennedy, Rogic, Wilkshire,
Holman, Robbie Kruse, or Rhys Williams.
He seems to
be taking decisions on bias and principle, not cold-hard logic. I would have
definitely taken Schwarzer, Kennedy or Wilkshire. Australia qualified under
Holger Osieck, but he was fired after a 6-0 demolishing by France in a
friendly, and with him a lot of players were purged.
Australia is probably a madman’s crazy experiment, but since they are a real
wild card, and there are some decent unknown players there something just might
happen, but the chance is miniscule, and Postecoglu will prove the irrational
genius instead of the mindless flop.
But honestly, I like that he is doing it for the sake of attacking football,
maybe he simply represents a wonderful sense of realism that Australia has to
market itself positively and be memorable rather than successful. His only
experience is in the A-League, so we just have to wait and see.
GK: 6.5 – talented but untested
DEF: 6.0 – would struggle in many European second
divisions, but traditionally physically strong
MID: 7.0 – I think better than on paper, some strong,
tactical and disciplined players in there.
ATT: 5.2 – Cahill is a great if not old player but not a
class attacker for such a high level, maybe a simple poacher or defensive
striker role might work
The star: Tim Cahill has
had a long career as a decisive goal scorer and match winner, but most of that
happened years ago at Everton. I highly doubt the midfielder can perform as an
effective attacker here.
Super-poacher,
fighting, determined, good leader.
The defender: Alex Wilkinson is very highly rated in
the Korean League, mainly because at 181 and and Australian build he is
a giant-among-peers there, but he should be in over his head with a Dutch,
Chilean, or Spanish attack.
Inexperienced, resilient, mistake-prone
The midfield: Mark Bresciano used to be a very
succesful attacking midfielder in Serie A, and he is a consistent quality
performer for the national team, although know he plays as a defensive midfield
anchor.
Look for his
good passes and long shot, he is getting very old and weaker, his stamina might
not be there anymore, could crumble under a good press.
The attack: a medium performer in the
2.Bundesliga Mathew Leckie is a right or sometimes left winger for a
433, and at that level he is capable and hardworking, but only scores once in
three games at best. He did have 9 assists in addition to his 10 club goals
this season though.
Strong,
determined, think traditional English talentless forward where grit and
determination makes him look better than he is
The captain: Mile Jedinak is a charismatic, shy guy
who contributed to keeping Crystal Palace up miraculously this season as
captain. I think he is a real consistent and determined performer who can lead
a team like few others, great choice, and might be a key ingredient if
Postecoglu proves a genius not a fool.
The prospects:
all 170 cm of
22-year-old Tommy Oar who play for Dutch mega-giants Utrecht are
actually underrated. Ok he only managed 4 goals this season, but this little
unknown could be the second best winger, ok third best in Group B behind Alexis
Sanchez and Robben. He is no great, but he looks good for Australia anyways, a
player to watch out for because he creates goals for them.
Fast,
determined, good balance, good team play, inexperienced and under-skilled, he
might be going places though.
The pick of the games:
Spain – Chile
18th June - 20h CET – Rio
A great
friendly clash in recent years, the Chileans have a thing for upsetting the
favourites Spain regulary, and for disrupting Spanish control of the game
effectively. This derby should be a cracker.
Spain – Holland
13th June – 20h – Salvador
The kickoff
of perhaps the only stadium that was worth building this World Cup, the repeat
of last year’s final might prove to be an epic chess match between old men, but
it also just might be a beautiful game with end-to-end stuff as well,
especially if the Dutch score first.
The food table:
Australia with
perfecting the simplicity of a barbecue win the group with 9 points drowned in
not-so-bad wine
Spain
with the crowd-pleasing tapas are just a point behind them due to arteries
clogged with too much olive oil
Chile
do ok with seafood, but the fact that it takes 3 days to cook their sea-snail
or Molusco in milk leaves them with only a point
Holland, sorry Joe, chokes on
friture and although the Indonesian fare manages to raise some smiles, it’s too
little and too late.
The prediction:
Honestly if Holland and Spain play at
even a middle level, then it all is down to Chile.
Australia surprising might happen, but
so might Putin winning the Nobel Peace prize.
What is possible, within acceptable
realms of probability, is that Chile might squeeze past one of the two
favourites Spain or Holland, but that is still less likely than likely.
My game predictions, which I tried to
be daring in, saw Spain faltering, and Chile and Holland going through. Now I
was building up the courage to write that…
More likely predictions are a good number of yellow cards, a good number of
desperate moments, and very close run at the end.
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